Up until elections day, pollsters and analysts strongly indicated that current far-right Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro had slim chances of being re-elected. Former leftist president Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, regularly earned a comfortable majority of support in opinion polls. In the Brazilian electoral system, having an outright majority is the condition necessary for automatic win, without the requisite for a runoff between the two most voted candidates.

The world watched with dismay when 43.23 percent of the votes went to Bolsonaro, who performed better than expected in all 27 states of Brazil, with no exceptions. Important allies of the president were elected as governors in the first round in key states, such as the Federal District (Ibaneis Rocha) and Rio de Janeiro (Claudio Castro). In the Senate, 20 out of the 27 senators elected are Bolsonaro supporters, and a significant number of allies also gained seats in the Congress. Despite that, Lula still earned the plurality of votes, winning with 48 percent.

“For me, the first-round results were a bit disappointing, especially considering that Brazil elected a very conservative Congress both in the Senate and in the House,” says Arthur Costa da Silveira, former president of the Brazilian Student Association at NYU Abu Dhabi. “Many of the congressmen and senators that were elected have made statements against democratic institutions and the separation of powers in Brazil, including fueling conspiracy theories during the pandemic. My main concern is how this Congress will shape the government of either Lula or Bolsonaro.”

In recent years, Bolsonaro has become not only a symbol of the rise of the far-right in the world, but of incompetence. His government has been directly linked to [corruption schemes] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-property-payments-cash-allegations). It profoundly mishandled the pandemic, with the president [ignoring at least 81 Pfzier emails] (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/equilibrioesaude/2021/06/apos-ignorar-emails-da-pfizer-bolsonaro-agora-pede-antecipacao-da-entrega-de-doses.shtml), spreading misinformation on vaccines and openly speaking against the prevention mechanisms such as the use of masks.

Almost 700 thousand people died in [the world's second highest pandemic death toll] (https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/br). 33 million people have been left hungry in one of the worst food crises in the country. Furthermore, a massive increase in the deforestation of the Amazon drove its ecosystem to its absolute tipping point, presenting a danger to the entire world’s climate. On top of all that, Bolsonaro stayed faithful to sexist, homophobic and racist rhetoric.

It’s not simple to answer.

Many of Bolsonaro’s supporters point at the incompetence of leftist governments. Lula was president from 2002 to 2010, leading the country to spectacular economic and social progress. Upon the final years of his presidency, Lula supported Dilma, who is from the same party — the Workers’ Party — in her candidacy. However, once elected, she was not a popular president, and many still hold her and her party as responsible for the 2014 financial crisis. Later on, Lula would be charged with corruption charges and arrested before being released, innocent on all counts, after the judiciary decision that his arrest was rooted in a judge’s bias.

Critics of the Workers’ Party also hold the view that Lula is “as extreme” as Bolsonaro — wrongly equating a center-left democratic political project with Bolsonaro’s far-right political project that flirts with anti-democratic, fascist political projects. Finally, an everlasting “Venezuela ghost” haunts critics of the left. They fear that if a leftist government wins elections, Brazil will become “the next Venezuela” and plunge into a state of economic crisis.

“There’s a lack of political literacy. Especially because our democracy is so young, we’re still getting used to absorbing information and understanding the political system,” says Bruna Pereira, a Brazilian NYUAD student. “We fail to understand the [structural] roots of our problems, so it's easier to agree with far-right politicians that provide very simplistic answers to problems in Brazil.”

Fake news, the evangelical churches and agribusiness are also on the side of Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro’s supporters rely heavily on fake news, mainly circulated on WhatsApp. Headlines such as “URGENT: Lula is planning Bolsonaro’s assassination,” “Lula owes 4 billion reais (€785 million) to tax authorities,” and “Lula will close down all churches,” are widely shared in social media. Bolsonaro also has the support of the evangelical church, which accuses leftist politics of destroying the family and society’s commitment to God. Finally, big agrobusiness figures support Bolsonaro, since the president has made it easier for the uncontrolled growth of the sector, which is currently linked with the increase in the deforestation of the Amazon.

The 2022 elections reinforced a historical political divide between the whiter and richer South and the poorer, blacker and more indigenous North. In the southern states, Bolsonaro won the majority of the votes. In the northern states, Lula celebrated a massive win.

In an increasingly polarized and divided Brazilian society, those who are the most vulnerable — women, queer people, Black people, indigenous folks and environmental activists have experienced a hostile environment. “I am very scared of Bolsonaro’s public security policy and his connections with the police,” said Bruna. “He actively supports police violence, [which] is very dangerous to Black and poor people. I am very scared for my family in that sense.”

The collective feeling of revolt and anguish has left many unhopeful for a less hateful Brazil. Others take power in their anger and demand political organization in favor of democracy. Despite all of that, it is clear that the rise of the far-right has opened a fresh wound. In a society that is still understanding the legacies of colonization, slavery, ongoing oligarchy and a brutal military dictatorship, it seems hard to trust.

I watched the 2022 elections with other Brazilian students at NYUAD. Utter shock and desperation slowly stamped our expression as Bolsonaro led the vote counts up until 70 percent of the votes were in. Each newly elected far-right governor or senator made us either laugh in disbelief or tear up in anguish. We know from close experience the complete failure of Bolsonaro’s government, as some of us grew up close to the now threatened Amazon, some have experienced first-hand the increased number of hate crimes and defunding of public education, and others lost close family members to COVID-19. The feeling of complete defeat was palpable in the air, and many of us did not even have the guts to attend classes the following day.

Lula is currently on the lead to win in the coming runoff on Oct. 30. Despite the legislative being flooded by far-right and fascist politicians, Brazilians elected a number of trans, indigenous, and Black congresspersons. For the first time, congress will include two trans women, and the Workers’ Party elected the second highest number of deputies in the Congress, after Bolsonaro’s party.

Furthermore, given Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic project, sections of the liberal and center-right declared support for Lula’s candidacy. “I expect that the runoff will be close, but that Lula will snatch a victory, and I wish that Brazilian democracy survives. That’s my biggest concern in this election: to ensure the survival of Brazilian democracy. [It] has been tested many times, and it's now facing its most formidable challenge that it has ever faced [since democratization],” concluded Arthur.