Much like how many dismissed the possibility of World War I due to the conviction of globalization back then, even the ‘experts’ believed that Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine in 2021 was empty bravado. After all, there was so much to be lost in doing so, and yet irrationality triumphed in both cases.

On Feb. 24, Russia stupefied the world by invading Ukraine, proving that civilization had not progressed beyond open warfare and heralding an end to the anomalous seven-decade long peace which persisted after World War II. The continuing Russia-Ukraine war depicts a deterioration of the rules-based international order and a potential reversal to an earlier norm of chaotic conflict endemic to wider history. Conversely, the voluminous aid that Ukraine has received signifies a defense of the globalized status quo.

As the war dragged on to a quagmire, Russia resorted to limiting oil and natural gas supplies to Europe in retaliation against major economic sanctions targeting its economy and war effort. However, what once seemed to be a silver bullet against European cohesion and support for Ukraine may not be as poignant as hoped. Not only have the sanctions and Russian belligerence expedited the shift away from Russian energy sources dramatically, approximately $140 billion in consumer energy subsidies have also been raised by the EU through a combination of price caps on renewable energy and windfall taxes on non-renewable European energy companies.

All this and more has prompted analysts to predict an average fuel storage level of 90 percent by the end of October and natural gas prices of below €100 MWH by the end of Q1 2023, which paints a far more optimistic picture than original predictions. With that said, however, consumers still face great uncertainty regarding fickle energy costs. For instance, millions in Britain are expected to face energy poverty this winter despite a slew of new measures rolled out by the government, including a £2,500 household energy bill cap; while energy prices in the UK have been rising higher than mainland Europe, and the EU’s fuel storage is at record low levels, the human element of the crisis still depends on how harsh the coming winter will be.

Regardless, I believe this monumental retooling of energy sources has not only significantly reduced Russia’s leverage but also proven that a transition away from Russian dependency is viable and should be pursued. Besides making strategic sense, said shift is also a moral imperative as energy sales gains are funneled into the invasion of Ukraine, with Europe having accounted for as much as half of the €158 billion of Russian profits since the start of the war.

Beyond that, Europe’s gradual disengagement from the Russian economy can be rendered through the dilemma of either enduring prosperity or temporary convenience — between safeguarding the current rules-based world order or returning to the Law of the Jungle. Should an aggressor face no meaningful repercussions on the world stage despite carrying out egregious deeds, there may be a global breakdown of trust which subsequently disincentivizes trade over war. After all, why trade when you can simply take? Nobody would want to lose out when international relations devolve into a messy free-for-all once again.

In response to the energy crisis, Europe could either remain economically disengaged with Russia, or they could prioritize the rising utility costs by lifting relevant sanctions as the tensions soften. While the former comes at the cost of short-term pains like the rising energy bills, it would liberate the world from the ongoing global instability in the long run.

Suffice to say, many believe that the “Rules-Based International Order” is at best a stillborn and at worst a sham. One simply needs to skim through the numerous misadventures of major nations to acknowledge that powerful countries aren’t beholden to rules. While that may contain several elements of truth, it’s all the more reason for Europe to stand up to Russia, in a David-and-Goliath schema, to show that nations bigger and militarily mightier than their neighbors can still be held accountable.

As Europe is heading into a harsh winter because of the rising energy prices, a question arises on the EU’s next steps: will they prioritize resolving short-term suffering or pursuing long-term gain? The world is at a crossroads. Europe has largely solved the “energy crisis” already, now it is up to them to continue upholding the rules-based order and perhaps even make something better out of it.